U.S. investor Louis Vudhill of the board of the prestigious Economic Club of Growth, said that ... According to him, those countries ruled by regimes hostile U.S.: Iran sends uranoobogatitelnye plants into the ground to protect it from air raids, Russia announced a program of rearmament in the 635 billion dollars, and sows the seeds of Venezuela ... ...
And he also says that the U.S. urgently need to ... According Vudhilla, a strong dollar was perhaps the main weapon with which Reagan brought down the Soviet Union - ... According to him, strengthening the dollar, Reagan provoked the collapse of oil prices, foreign exchange revenues of the USSR fell sharply that ... But does it really was?.
When Reagan took office, gold was worth $ 499 per ounce, and oil - 84.5 dollars per barrel, based on the current money. The new president has supported a program to fight inflation Fed chairman Paul Volcker, then gold and oil have become cheaper. By March 1986 the price of oil fell to 22.85 dollars, and then general secretary of the CPSU Central Committee Mikhail Gorbachev realized that something was wrong. Revenues from oil exports of the USSR declined by 73%, and after four years of the Soviet Union was on the verge of bankruptcy, and therefore broke up in 1991. This paints an apocalyptic picture of Vudhill.
Perhaps not too educated Americans believe this, but first it's worth noting that the sharp fluctuations in oil prices - a phenomenon for the world market is quite familiar. For example, during the energy crisis of the 70s the price of oil dropped to 2-4 dollars a barrel. Then again, the price rises above $ 100, and then again decreased to $ 9. And all these years the Soviet Union continued to be quite normal, despite a decline in revenues from oil exports. The reason is that the economy of the Soviet Union was completely self-sufficient, and he could live for years, nothing has been buying in the West and domestic currency was not necessary - it does not have the free circulation. So it's a statement of the American investor says only that his ...
By the way, the price of gold here at all to do with it, because from the time of the Jamaica Agreement of the mid-'70s, it was just a commodity, absolutely no effect on the value of world currencies, but still, moreover, is not very reliable. And more proof of this is the fact that during the recent market meltdown, the dollar and securities of the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the price - investors all over the world translated into their funds, gold fell along with all other raw materials.
And the Soviet Union was destroyed from within, not outside, only thanks to the efforts of Gorbachev, who is a Supreme Soviet declared ... And the first blow to the economy was the introduction of the ... The fact that the food in the Soviet Union and many other consumer goods were subsidized by the cross-financing through income from drinking. For example, the production of a liter of alcohol costs the state 57 cents, but because it could make a few pollitrovok vodka, which cost up to 4 rubles. The difference of this revenue was, for example, to support the production of products that were very cheap. Naturally, when the cash flow dried up, grasped the collapse of production, and store shelves emptied.
You can continue this anthology destruction of the Soviet economy and on, but there 's no point - it is already quite well described. So proceed at once to the result of Gorbachev and his ...
Indeed, the current Russian economy Oil - is everything. According to CEO ... For example, in 2010, petrodollar revenues to the Russian budget reached 4.1 trillion rubles, amounting to almost 50 % of its revenues. As calculated in the Finance Ministry, reducing the cost of ... Therefore, it is not surprising that the government has steadfastly refused to recognize the objective reality - a tendency to reduce the world price of oil due to the stagnation of the global economy. And because the Russian budget for 2012 was calculated on the basis of the officials of domestic prices of Urals at $ 100 per barrel, though it is already teetering on the brink.
Despite the upbeat statements by the former Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin, before his dismissal, that Russia will be able to live a year with a decrease in oil to $ 60 per barrel, even $ 75-80 already may have disastrous consequences. As explained by many experts, this is due to the fact that the current budget squeezes only ... Well, $ 60 Kudrinsky certainly lead to a devaluation of the ruble and the collapse of industrial production, which is now - at prices above 100 dollars - is in a recession. As a result, Russia will have to go back into debt, begging for money from the IMF, which in return, as usual, will require reducing budget expenditures on social. In general, the population of the country will have to take the rap, and especially to poor.
However, while the Russians can still sleep at night - the current decline in oil prices is unlikely to affect the 2011 budget because revenues come from exports to a country with a lag of three months. However, until March next year, most likely, the authorities have enough money to run all the social promises to voters, the good we have left Kudrinsky ... Although the Reserve Fund money already thoroughly wasted to cover budget deficits and the Pension Fund, in an inviolable Sovereign Wealth Fund ( which is intended for future generations of Russians ), still have a couple of trillion rubles. And then Russia will have a new president and he has a ba- alshoy horizon for budget planning - the size in five years under the new law.
Meanwhile, the ruble has already started to crumble: this week the central bank was forced to carry the largest since 2009 intervened in the forex market is larger than $ 2.7 billion. And just two weeks the fall of the domestic currency reserves of the Central Bank lost weight in excess of $ 6 billion. And it flowers, or even be in three months - at the beginning of next year, when the oil dollars on the currency market will lower.
In addition, the pressure on the ruble, and has a flight of capital from the country. Net capital outflows ( inflows minus outflows ) in the first half of the year reached 31 billion dollars. According to analysts ING, dismissal of the Minister of Finance will lead investors to flee because they do not like the noise and the pre-election bickering. As a result, only in the fourth quarter of the capital outflow from Russia may amount to 25-30 billion dollars. And if we the people will begin to transfer their savings into foreign currency, as it was in 2008, it will increase pressure on the ruble.
Only the head of the Central Bank Sergei Ignatyev, ... Maybe because spring 2013th end of his mandate? . According to him, the increase in demand for the currency provoked by ... However, according to experts, the biggest currency speculators - a state-owned companies.
America will collapse first.
Let's go back ... According Vudhill, the proposal to stabilize the dollar has already introduced in Congress by Representative Ted On. This is a bill number 1638, according to which the Fed has to assign an exact date and time when the dollar will be stabilized to the oil price on the stock exchange COMEX, the price will also be a target for the Fed to gold.
The author believes that ... Although, again, it is unclear what have the gold, but if the oil price collapse, it does lead to an increase in the dollar. For example, thanks to the efforts of the Fed, the U.S. brand of oil Light will cost 35.5 dollars per barrel, not 82.6 as it is now. However, it is not clear how the Fed will be able to provide such a significant impact on the free market of oil to lower its price in almost three times. But not for the fact that the European grade Brent, from which it is calculated at a discount the Russian Urals, will be exactly follow the Light. For example, during the recent collapse in prices, Light has fallen well below $ 100, and Brent remained at 105.
In any case, the first to suffer from rising dollar, will the U.S. economy, because its already excessive debt will rise correspondingly strengthen the dollar, U.S. exporters would lose any competitive advantage in global market capitalization of U.S. stock market will fall at times, and unemployment . That is why the United States in recent years trying to weaken the dollar - even by armed conflict and destabilization in the oil-producing countries in the Middle East. Because between the price of oil and the dollar, and there is feedback - when oil goes up in value, the dollar decreases. The military operation in Iraq, the pressure on Iran to provoke conflict in Libya - all this in a series of ...
